In the next few paragraphs I will describe a betting strategy that can be defined as a very safe and a totally risky one at the same time. Maybe because its basis is the desire of the bookmakers to keep the balance in the total sum of bets made and thus to benefit from the margin. The system is also dangerous because for a betting method on this system I use Martingale. For those who don’t know what the Martingale betting system is, it is a progressive betting system which requires an increase in the stakes every time you lose a bet. According to almost everybody who really knows what betting is, this system will always lead to bankruptcy, whatever success the player had before.
However, the last sentence was a bit negative. Let’s focus first on the more positive things.
I think the bookies have one major weakness and it lies in the fact that to make a profit, they rely on the balance of the total amount of bets against the odds. So if you have equal odds the total sum of bets for both possible outputs must be divided equally.
If we continue to look ahead in this logic, we would see that the bookmaker won’t benefit from extremely long series in one or another direction, because they could distort their profit potential. When such long series happens, the bookmaker changes the odds to respond to the changing stakes. Here is a simple example, if team A have made five straight wins, the sixth game of theirs would be with much lower odds than if they played with exactly the same team, but in a series of five consecutive losses.
We can make an analogy with the coefficients. Let us use tennis as an example. If you have five matches where the player A has odds for a win of 1.8 and the player B has the odds of two and all five matches ended in victory for the second player. You could be sure that the sixth match of players with the same strength won’t be with the same odds offered by the betting house.
If you believe in this logic, you can easily assume that the bookmakers will not let a long series of the same winning odds to happen. This is the main conclusion that should be made.
Well, the post became really long and I will explain in the next post in a few days how I use all said above.