A Martingale betting system – updated version

About a week ago, I wrote a few lines about the new betting system I use. It’s about my belief that the bookies will do everything possible to avoid a long series of cases in which the same odds come out as winners again and again.
For example when we have two possible outcomes, one with odds of 1.8 and one with 2. My belief is that a series of 8-9 consecutive times with the winner is only one of them is highly unlikely.

How do I use this pattern? In fact, in the most adventurous way – with Martingale. Just one sentence clarifying what Martingale betting system is. This is a betting system which involves progressive increasing of the stakes with each loss. A note here, according to almost everyone who are familiar with betting, when using Martingale it is inevitable to reach a point when you will lose your bank.

Of course, the chances they are right are huge, but here’s what I do.

First, I use a bank which will be zero after three series of unsuccessful Martingale. Of course, this huge bank reduces the idea for quick profit to minimum, but I count on the more profitable series than to a quick profit.

The second thing I do is to set the limit at which to start betting. This point is very important as the lower limit for the start will be too risky. If you do that you are likely to encounter a long series and thus lose your money.

A higher limit will in turn lead to less stakes and hence a very small profit opportunities. However, if you hesitate between the two, my advice will be that the higher limit is better.

My limit is 4.5 or in other words, I start betting when the total profits from a series are up to 4.5. This effectively means four consecutive profitable outcomes at odds of 1.9 or five in a row at 1.8 and so on.

For all possible odds I’ve calculated my limit and the only thing I need to do from now on is to follow the matches. When I see a series that passes the required number of consecutive outcomes I start betting against it.

So far, this method has been successful, but with Martingale you never know. So, crossing fingers!

Here is another interesting video which shows something similar:

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A Martingale betting system

In the next few paragraphs I will describe a betting strategy that can be defined as a very safe and a totally risky one at the same time. Maybe because its basis is the desire of the bookmakers to keep the balance in the total sum of bets made and thus to benefit from the margin. The system is also dangerous because for a betting method on this system I use Martingale. For those who don’t know what the Martingale betting system is, it is a progressive betting system which requires an increase in the stakes every time you lose a bet. According to almost everybody who really knows what betting is, this system will always lead to bankruptcy, whatever success the player had before.

However, the last sentence was a bit negative. Let’s focus first on the more positive things.

I think the bookies have one major weakness and it lies in the fact that to make a profit, they rely on the balance of the total amount of bets against the odds. So if you have equal odds the total sum of bets for both possible outputs must be divided equally.

If we continue to look ahead in this logic, we would see that the bookmaker won’t benefit from extremely long series in one or another direction, because they could distort their profit potential. When such long series happens, the bookmaker changes the odds to respond to the changing stakes. Here is a simple example, if team A have made five straight wins, the sixth game of theirs would be with much lower odds than if they played with exactly the same team, but in a series of five consecutive losses.

We can make an analogy with the coefficients. Let us use tennis as an example. If you have five matches where the player A has odds for a win of 1.8 and the player B has the odds of two and all five matches ended in victory for the second player. You could be sure that the sixth match of players with the same strength won’t be with the same odds offered by the betting house.

If you believe in this logic, you can easily assume that the bookmakers will not let a long series of the same winning odds to happen. This is the main conclusion that should be made.

Well, the post became really long and I will explain in the next post in a few days how I use all said above.

Inter vs Tottenham my betting prediction

Being an Inter fan last Thursday was certainly a real torture when watching Gareth Bale and Tottenham crushing the great team from Milan. Actually 3-0 was the lowest score, which Inter players couldget, so superior were the English players in all parts of the game. Villas-Boas’ players were much faster, more technical and creative than their Italian opponents.

Could the Spurs play so strongly two matches in a row? That is the big question before this meeting and personally I think the answer would be a huge no. Tottenham is the master of being unable to hold a higher form in successive matches. The team showed it in their last Premier League match against Liverpool, which lost with 3-2 and so kept the chance of its pursuers for the Champions League places alive.

Another important part of this betting prediction is the fact that Inter players are very experienced and names like Javier Zanetti and Esteban Cambiasso know exactly what to do to use the slightest sign of relaxation in the team of Tottenham.

If there is something positive for the Italians after the first match, it was that they kept their winning spirit and warned everybody not to write them off before the final whistle. It’s really hard to believe you can win after 0:3, but that’s an asset which only the best teams in the world have and Inter is exactly one of them.

That’s why my preference goes for the home team tonight. I am fully aware that their chances to move forward are really tiny, but so are the chances for Tottenham to win both games. That is why a bet for a win for Inter with DNB which seems to me quite reasonable. Moreover, when it comes to the factor of 1.625 given by the betting houses.

This will be my bet for today. However, if the match is still equal to the middle of the second half, I can sacrifice my potential profit and ensure with a live bet for a win for Tottenham.